Recently, I’ve been pondering a question: what are the underlying patterns that govern the bull and bear markets in the crypto world? After analyzing a lot of data and historical trends, I’ve realized there’s indeed a hidden time logic behind it.

To start with the conclusion, most people believe that the crypto market follows a four-year cycle. Looking at key points in 2013, 2017, and 2021, it’s clear they follow this rhythm. Moreover, the duration of bull and bear markets also shows a pattern: bull markets usually last about a year, while bear markets can drag on for two years or even longer.

Reflecting on 2017, Bitcoin’s rally was truly crazy, with prices soaring above $20k. At that time, social media was full of “moon missions” slogans, and everyone wanted to get in. But then, from 2018 to 2019, the market entered a winter, with prices falling to a few thousand dollars, many projects shutting down, and the market starting to clear out the bubbles. This is a classic bull and bear cycle.

Interestingly, Bitcoin’s halving events have always acted as catalysts for bull markets. Historically, each halving has led to over tenfold increases, and on average, it takes about 33 months for a new bull cycle to start after a halving. Based on this cycle, the timing of the next bull run becomes relatively predictable.

But here’s a key point—specific durations of bull and bear markets are not fixed. Policy changes, global economic conditions, and market sentiment all influence the cycle. The actions of whales and institutional players are also crucial; they often quietly accumulate at the bottom of bear markets, ready to surge with retail investors when the bull market begins. When the market reaches its peak and FOMO hits extreme levels, that’s usually a sign it’s time to take profits.

My observation is that the deep bear market in 2023 kept everyone in fear. The real bull phase started in 2024, with institutional funds gradually entering the market. During the months surrounding halving cycles, prices often dip first and then rise—this is a good opportunity for whales to accumulate. As time progresses and the economic environment improves, a large influx of new capital tends to follow.

Therefore, for investors, understanding the cyclical patterns of bull and bear markets is crucial. During bull markets, be cautious of over-investing; during bear markets, patience is key. Market volatility is normal—what matters most is risk awareness, choosing projects with real strength, and not blindly following the crowd. Time and strength are the best weapons. In this journey full of uncertainties, rationality and patience will help you stay ahead.