The prediction market is once again showing smart money buying in and expecting a rally, with oil prices putting pressure on BTC again.

As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains tense, it’s hard for the market to confidently talk about “loose policies in the second half of the year.”
The statement from Reuters has shifted to: the U.S. is waiting for Iran’s proposal to have “specific wording,” while also warning that “if they act recklessly, a restart of strikes is possible.”
Once these words come out, don’t expect the crude oil risk premium to disappear on its own.
The market has already priced Brent at the $120-$125 range, and inflation expectations are being forcibly pulled higher.
Odds and pricing situation: Polymarket’s contract for “Trump announcing the lifting of the blockade” has already reached over $10.7 million in total volume—short-term bets are almost not paying attention—only a few points by 5/8, just over 10% by 5/15, and over 20% by 5/31.
You may not believe the news, but it’s hard to ignore that “money is pricing in time.”
This is most troublesome for assets like BTC: it wants to follow risk appetite with the Nasdaq but can’t escape the chain of “oil prices → real interest rates → USD/long-term yields.”
BTC has been able to hold around 77k-78k recently, with news of large daily ETF inflows indicating that funds haven’t completely pulled out;
but if oil prices continue to push back the probability of rate cuts, the top for the coin is set, with volatility below.
Next, focus on three things:
1. Whether the short-term probability on Polymarket suddenly rises (indicating real textual/execution-level shifts).
2. Whether oil prices can return to around $110 (only when risk premiums retreat can we talk about re-risk-on).
3. Whether BTC can turn “inflows” at around 80k into a “breakout.”
If the channel isn’t resolved, all risk-on moves are like borrowed time.