For ordinary people, the first rule of investing, without exception, is: stay focused, always invest in the United States! We are increasingly discovering that American society has remarkable resilience and error-correction mechanisms. The American people are the clearest-minded in the world, and taking shortcuts in American society is not sustainable. The transmission mechanisms of public opinion and power always keep the pendulum swinging back, and such a society with built-in stabilizers is the best investment environment, highly predictable. Although the U.S. also has structural issues, such as federal debt problems, these are all transparent, and we can mitigate risks through asset allocation.

If you are doing business or pursuing a career, or for professional investors, with favorable timing, geographical advantages, and harmony among people, opportunities vary across different regions, and you may not earn less outside the U.S. But for ordinary investors, it’s about targeting the U.S., locking onto the U.S., and believing in the destiny of America!
Regarding China, I am completely pessimistic. Those with connections can dominate the Chinese capital market, but in investment fields accessible to ordinary people, I have no confidence at all. Chinese society, in the foreseeable future, will see the complete breakdown of the aforementioned transmission mechanisms, losing its ability for dynamic error correction entirely. The macroeconomic deterioration and destruction of confidence have no chance of recovery in the near term. The early warning of the spring river water warming is like a duck knowing first—some things I dare not say too plainly. From a macro perspective, China’s future will enter an era that is very unfriendly to ordinary investors. It’s not that they will definitely lose money, but considering opportunity costs, there will be no profit.
I just talked a lot about the problems in the U.S.—isn’t that contradictory? Not at all! The future world will be a world of mediocrity, where the good old days of lying around and making money with your eyes closed are gone forever. So, it’s even more a test of our ability to choose the right fishing pond. Among the lame, pick the general; the U.S. is still that pond, the only pond in the world.