$ZEC at $390, will you chase?

It increased 1,000% in a year, 66% in 30 days, 11% in 7 days, and rose another 7.6% in the past 24 hours— but when you open the candlestick chart, you see that this thing has been around since 2016, with a high of $5,941. Now at $390, it's still 93% below the peak.

First, look at the surface: the rise is fierce, so fierce it’s frightening.

In the past 24 hours, ZEC's price skyrocketed from $362 to the $390–$400 range, with trading volume hitting $670 million, far above recent average levels. RSI (6) has already reached 89.24—what does this mean? Overbought to the point of grandma’s house, normally it should have corrected long ago. But the price just won’t fall. Why?

First thing: supply side exploded.

Zcash’s total supply is only 21 million, same as Bitcoin. But the key data is this: 30% of the circulating supply—about 5.17 million ZEC—is locked in privacy pools and cannot move.

The actual tradable ZEC is only 70% of the total supply. Plus, the halving in November 2024 just happened, cutting new supply in half. Shrinking supply + locked-in supply = extremely tight liquidity * any demand coming in will amplify the price.

Second thing: institutions are starting to scoop up.

Grayscale Zcash Trust’s trading volume doubled, with daily average exceeding $1.7 million in April. Robinhood launched ZEC spot trading, directly connecting to 27 million US stock users. DCG founder said: privacy coins will have a “prophet’s advantage.” Arthur Hayes hinted that $400 is not the top.

Third thing: some are bearish, and heavily short.

A whale just opened a $11.47 million short position with 10x leverage. Someone is betting ZEC will fall at this level, betting big.

On one side: shrinking supply, institutional buying, privacy narrative exploding.

On the other side: RSI overbought, whales shorting, macro environment uncertain.

Key level: $370, the last bottom line for bulls and bears.

If you’re a short-term trader: try small positions in the $390–$405 range, break above $400 with volume and chase, target $420→$450→$480. Take profit of 30–40% at each stage, reduce 1/3, and roll over stop-loss. Set stop-loss below $353, cut and run if broken—don’t hold.

If you’re a long-term player: boldly add on dips at $370–$380. Hold core positions until the end of the year, target $600–$800. ZEC’s ATH is $5,941, now only $390—calculate this space.

ZEC now is like SOL in 2020—those who don’t understand think it’s doomed, those who do are quietly adding. #美国寻求战略比特币储备 $ZEC $BTC