#美联储利率不变但内部分歧加剧 At its April policy meeting, the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged, but the rare 8:4 vote revealed the most severe internal rift since 1992. Policy direction has shifted from the earlier “rate-cut consensus” to “two-way uncertainty.”

The specific details of this “split” are as follows:
· A rare “two-way” split: The four opposing votes are not from a single position. Director Milan, a rate-cut advocate, argues for an immediate 25 basis point rate cut; the three hawkish regional Federal Reserve presidents, while supporting rates being held steady, strongly oppose the more dovish wording in the statement that implies “the next step could be a rate cut,” arguing that the option to raise rates should be kept.
· The game behind the wording: The market broadly interprets the “further adjustments” retained in the statement as a signal of a rate cut. Kashkari and other hawkish officials have explicitly pointed out that, given current inflation and the geopolitical situation, this forward guidance is no longer appropriate—the next move could be a rate hike.
· Institutional expectations shifting: Institutions such as JPMorgan predict that the Federal Reserve may keep rates unchanged throughout all of 2026, and that the risk of rate hikes has already emerged in 2027, which is sharply different from the rate-cut expectations earlier this year.
In addition to disagreements over interest rates, this meeting was also Powell’s “farewell show” as chair, leaving his successor with a more complex situation:
· Powell breaks with precedent by staying on: After stepping down as chair on May 15, Powell will break the 75-year tradition by continuing to remain as a Federal Reserve governor until 2028. Although he promised to “keep a low profile,” this means the new chair will face an extremely influential predecessor during meetings.
· The new chair faces a “big test”: The incoming chair, Kevin Woor, will take over a committee split into three factions over rate cuts, holding steady, and rate hikes. At the same time, he must also deal with stubborn inflation driven by the Middle East situation (core PCE rising to 3.2%) and political pressure.
These signals of “split” directly affect the market. After the resolution was released, traders raised the probability of a rate hike before April 2027 from 20% to 55%. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.4% to 98.95, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield also climbed to 4.40%.
The Federal Reserve’s next decision will largely depend on how the Middle East situation evolves and on the direction of oil prices.