#美联储利率不变但内部分歧加剧 At the Federal Reserve’s April policy meeting, it decided to keep interest rates unchanged. However, the rare 8:4 voting result revealed the most severe internal rift since 1992, with the policy direction shifting from the previous “rate-cut consensus” to “two-way uncertainty.”

The specific details of this “split” are as follows:

· A rare “two-way” division: The four dissenting votes were not all from the same camp. Dovish Fed Governor Milan argued for an immediate 25 basis point rate cut; the three hawkish regional Fed presidents, while supporting keeping rates unchanged, strongly opposed the statement’s dovish wording suggesting that “the next step could be a rate cut,” and believed that the option to raise rates should be kept on the table.
· The game behind the wording: The market broadly interpreted the phrase “further adjustments” retained in the statement as a signal for a rate cut. Hawkish officials such as Kashkari explicitly pointed out that, given current inflation and the geopolitical situation, such forward guidance is no longer appropriate—meaning the next move could be a rate hike.
· Institutional expectations shift: Institutions such as JPMorgan predict that the Fed may keep rates unchanged throughout all of 2026, and that the risk of rate hikes has emerged for 2027—very different from the rate-cut expectations at the beginning of the year.

In addition to disagreements over rates, this meeting was also Powell’s “farewell show” as chair, leaving his successor with a more complicated situation:

· Powell breaks with tradition by staying on: After stepping down as chair on May 15, Powell will break the 75-year precedent and remain as a Federal Reserve governor until 2028. Although he pledged to “stay low-profile,” this means the new chair will face an extremely influential predecessor at meetings.
· The new chair faces a “major test”: The incoming chair, Kevin Waush, will take over a committee split into three factions—those favoring rate cuts, those advocating holding steady, and those calling for rate hikes. At the same time, he must also contend with stubborn inflation driven by the Middle East situation (core PCE rising to 3.2%) and political pressure.

These “division” signals have directly impacted the market. After the resolution was released, traders raised the probability of rate hikes before April 2027 from 20% to 55%. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.4% to 98.95, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note also climbed to 4.40%.

The Fed’s next decision will, to a large extent, depend on how the Middle East situation evolves and on the trend and direction of oil prices.