Recently, I’ve noticed an interesting phenomenon: the Bank of Japan’s policy direction seems to have become a focal point for market attention. Economists at Rakuten Securities have put forward a thought-provoking perspective—how much the current Middle East situation’s impact on energy prices will spill over into other commodities and services is the key factor behind the BOJ’s decision-making.

Their view is that the central bank should take a cautious approach at next week’s meeting and not rush to raise interest rates in Japan. The logic is actually quite clear: under this kind of external shock, the central bank’s priority should be to ensure adequate liquidity and provide the necessary funds to those who need them, rather than hurrying to raise rates to fight inflation.

He states plainly that unless the situation in the Strait of Hormuz moves toward stability, or the outlook for oil procurement becomes clearer, pushing ahead with Japan’s rate hikes carries too much risk right now. This in fact reflects the BOJ’s cautious logic when facing geopolitical shocks—first stabilize the situation, then consider policy adjustments.

What does this mean for the market? In the short term, the BOJ may still maintain the status quo, and this will also affect the yen’s trend and the performance of related assets. If you’re keeping an eye on this, you may want to watch the BOJ’s recent statements and economic data—some signals should emerge.