Bitcoin, can it record gains for three consecutive months... The May watershed is highly anticipated.

Bitcoin (BTC) successfully rebounded during the sharp decline at the beginning of the year and continued to rise in March and April, but some observations suggest that volatility may increase again in May. Analysis indicates that in past bear markets, BTC has never closed three consecutive months with gains, so this month could become an important watershed.

On social media platform X, active YouTuber “Crypt Rover” on the 2nd (local time) pointed out based on 13 years of monthly return data for Bitcoin that during bear years, BTC has never experienced three consecutive months of gains. In the bear markets of 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin’s monthly rebounds were also quite limited, with the strongest case being a 39.46% increase in May 2014.

Especially in May, traditionally considered a good month for Bitcoin (BTC) performance. Over the past 12 years, there have been 7 instances ending with gains, and in the last two years, it has also maintained strength consecutively. However, even if May continues to rise, the record of three consecutive months of “gains” has never been seen before, which creates some pressure.

This year, Bitcoin continued the bear market trend from the end of last year, rising about 2% in March and 12% in April, achieving a rebound. As of now in May, it still maintains about a 3% upward momentum. But considering that the same pattern has not repeated historically, whether this rebound can turn into a trend reversal remains uncertain.

The market is also cautious that this recovery mainly appears in the futures market rather than in spot demand. In fact, on-chain data does not show obvious strong actual demand, so some analysts believe that further observation is needed to determine whether this rise signals the end of the bear market.

According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin’s current price fluctuates around $78,367 with little change. Although the past 7 days have seen a gain of only about 1%, based on the last 30 days, it has increased by over 17%, performing relatively strongly among major cryptocurrencies. At an exchange rate of 1 USD to 1,477 KRW, Bitcoin is approximately 115.8 million Korean won.

Ultimately, the trend of Bitcoin (BTC) in May is expected to present a scenario of historical statistics versus current supply and demand confrontation. The closing price this month is likely to determine whether it sets a rare record of three consecutive months of gains or is constrained by the typical pullback of a bear market.

TokenPost.ai Article Summary 🔎 Market Interpretation After rising in March and April, if May continues to rise, Bitcoin will face an unprecedented record of three consecutive months of gains in a bear market. Given historical data showing limited consecutive gains during bear markets, this current period is interpreted as a statistical resistance level. Since the rise is mainly driven by the futures market, there are doubts about whether this increase is based on actual demand. 💡 Strategy Highlights The May closing price is a key variable in determining whether the medium-term trend will change. Confirming spot trading volume and on-chain data (whether actual demand has recovered) is crucial. Instead of simply following short-term upward trends, risk management should be prepared for increased volatility. Flexible strategies are needed, considering both the possibility of repeated historical patterns and the potential for exceptions. 📘 Terminology Explanation Bear Market: A market condition characterized by long-term decline in asset prices. Futures Market: A market for predicting future prices and trading contracts, heavily influenced by leverage. On-Chain Data: Data analyzing actual transaction flows on the blockchain, used to assess real demand. Monthly Return Rate: The percentage change in the price of a specific asset over one month.

💡 Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q. Why is three consecutive months of gains for Bitcoin important? Because in past bear markets, Bitcoin has never experienced three consecutive months of gains. If this record is broken, it could be interpreted not just as a rebound but as a signal of a trend reversal. Q. Why is a futures-driven rise risky? Because the futures market operates with leverage, prices can rise even without actual asset demand. In such cases, the sustainability of the rise is weak, and sharp corrections are likely. Q. How to judge Bitcoin’s direction after May? It requires a comprehensive assessment of the May closing price, on-chain data, and whether spot trading volume has increased. Compared to just price increases, the key indicator is whether actual demand has recovered.