BTC's single-day 2.48% rebound is mainly driven by macro policy gaps and short-term capital inflows, but the essence of this rally remains a "speculative rebound." It is premature to define a bull market return, as bullish and bearish forces are in intense contention.

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1. Factors Behind the Rebound

In early May, this rebound was propelled by three direct factors: First, the Federal Reserve's May meeting kept interest rates unchanged, marking the last meeting of Powell's term, entering a "policy transition gap," reducing short-term uncertainty; second, on May 1, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a daily net inflow of up to $629.8 million, the largest single-day record since 2026, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing $284.4 million and Fidelity adding $213.4 million. ETF funds, after weeks of outflows, re-entered rapidly, providing an important "price absorption layer" for Bitcoin, with spot CVD surging 199.1% that week, indicating aggressive buying in the spot market; third, short squeeze of about $121 million accelerated the price rebound, forming a chain of stop-loss orders that drove a short-term surge.

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2. Optimistic Signals: Structural Forces Are Forming

From a longer-term perspective, four structural signals merit attention:

Technical Breakthrough Signal: Bitcoin closed above the 100-day moving average for the first time since its peak last October, breaking through the long-term downtrend channel that had suppressed the decline. Currently, RSI is around 63, in a "strong but not overbought" state, with daily and weekly charts forming "higher lows."

Institutional Accumulation Signal: Wallets holding over 1,000 BTC increased their holdings by 270k BTC in the past 30 days, the largest single-month increase since 2013. Whale addresses (holding 10 to 10,000 BTC) increased total holdings to 3.09 million BTC, a five-month high.

Supply-Demand Gap Signal: Bloomberg industry research estimates that if current demand growth continues, the supply-demand gap in 2026 could reach a record high of 100k to 120k BTC. Long-term holder addresses now account for 74% to 76% of total supply, a new high, indicating growing market consensus on long-term value.

Macro Expectation Signal: Powell's term ends on May 15, and his successor, Kevin Waugh, has prior crypto investment experience. Market expectations lean toward a more relaxed regulatory environment.

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3. Risk Factors: The Foundation of the Rally Is Not Solid

Two overlooked risk lines and one major divergence line resonate with the above optimistic signals:

First Risk Line: Fragile Structure Driven by Speculation

CryptoQuant Director Julio Moreno pointed out in a recent report that "perpetual futures demand was the sole driver of Bitcoin's April price increase, while spot demand continued to shrink. This structure has appeared in bear markets historically and is often unsustainable." When futures positions start to unwind, prices typically correct through retracement. Some analysts compare the current structure to the early 2022 bear market, warning of "significant downside risk."

Second Risk Line: Cautious Pricing in Derivatives Market

Despite Bitcoin rising about 15% over the past 30 days, options market pricing for a move above $84,000 by the end of May only assigns a 25% probability. Put options continue to trade at a premium, indicating increasing demand for downside protection, and long-term capital remains cautious.

Major Divergence Line: Miner Selling vs. Institutional Absorption

On the supply side, there is a stark divergence: leading listed miners deposited a total of 2,000 BTC into third-party custody for sale within less than a month, with BitDeer fully liquidating its weekly output. North American listed miners sold over 32k BTC in Q1 2026, setting a quarterly mining sale record. Meanwhile, institutions and whales increased holdings by approximately 40,967 BTC, worth about $3.17 billion. All chips sold by miners were absorbed by institutional whales, so supply pressure hasn't overwhelmed prices—whether this absorption can continue is key.

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4. Core Game: Technical "Breakout" vs. Fundamental "Lack of Fire"

The debate between bulls and bears centers on the timing of breakout and confirmation. Market expectations for Fed rate cuts this year have largely vanished; Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo have both delayed their first rate cut to 2027. The biggest narrative challenge is that the macro rate environment makes large-scale trend reversals unlikely, and technical "breakouts" require stronger fundamental catalysts to confirm a trend reversal.

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5. Overall Judgment

Currently, Bitcoin is in a "contradictory but clear" position. It is clear that the downward trend channel from October last year has been substantially broken, and the shorting structure has been dismantled. The contradiction lies in the insufficient strength of the breakout—$80,000 is the next critical test. Whether prices can volume-break above this level will determine the short-term direction; a breakout could trigger short squeeze, testing the $84,000–$86,000 range. If $75,000 support fails, the next support zone is at $72,000–$73,800.

The key signal to determine if the market has truly entered a new bull phase depends on a substantial rebound in spot demand—CryptoQuant explicitly states that "the core driver for market stabilization is the return of long-term genuine demand, meaning that when the market begins to reprice future value and spot buying resumes steadily, a true bottom may be established." Until clear signs of sustained spot demand re-emerge, the rebound should be treated as a wide-range oscillation, with position management focused on key support and resistance levels rather than retail "euphoria" as a buy signal.

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