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The Iran war is now coming for your credit score.
That's the headline. Here's what's actually happening.
Nobody's FICO dropped overnight. No press release went out saying "we raised our cutoff from 660 to 700." It just... happened.
Lenders aren't announcing tighter standards. They're just quietly moving the goalposts.
The borrower who sailed through underwriting six months ago is now getting "we'll get back to you" emails that never come.
Here's the real mechanism. When the Strait of Hormuz shut down, it sent oil prices higher, bond yields followed, and the 10-year Treasury spiked from below 4% to 4.48%.
That yield sets the price of your mortgage. Of your car loan. Of your credit card debt.
Mortgage rates climbed for five straight weeks after the war began. They were at 5.98% in late February. A historic low. Then the war started.
People are focused on the Fed. Will they cut? When?
Wrong question.
Credit markets don't just focus on rates. They focus on risk and risk perception. And right now, geopolitical risk is repricing everything below the surface.
War doesn't just kill soldiers.
It quietly kills credit access for millions of ordinary people who never hear a shot fired.