I just noticed something quite interesting in the latest inflation data. The US CPI jumped 0.9% month-over-month in March, the biggest increase since 2022, and that’s no small detail.

What’s happening? Basically, gasoline has taken center stage. Almost 75% of this increase came directly from fuel prices, which rose sharply due to tensions in Iran affecting the global energy supply. It’s that cascade effect we see when geopolitics moves markets.

Year-to-date, the US CPI reached 3.3%, the fastest pace since 2024. It seems that the stabilization period we had is over, and inflationary pressures are returning.

Now, what catches my attention is the core. The core inflation, which excludes food and energy, was just 0.2% month-over-month. This is important because it suggests the problem is still quite localized in energy. If this spreads to the rest of the economy, then we really have a bigger problem.

For those watching the markets, this creates a quite divided scenario. On one side, the strong headline inflation reinforces the narrative of “higher rates for longer,” which favors the dollar. On the other, the controlled core leaves open the possibility that this peak is only temporary if energy stabilizes.

The question everyone should be asking now is: will this spread? Will wages start to rise in response? Will oil prices stay at this level? If the answer is yes to these questions, inflation remains high. If not, we might just be seeing a temporary spike.

For now, what’s clear is that macroeconomic uncertainty remains high, and inflation is increasingly tied to geopolitical movements. It’s worth keeping an eye on.