Recently, people have been comparing the curve of stablecoin supply to ETF inflows, then jumping to the conclusion that "money is coming in, so prices should rise." I think it's quite easy to mistake correlation for causation in this matter... When stablecoins increase, it could be because of off-chain reserves, or simply because on-chain settlement needs have changed, or even because project teams are issuing tokens or market-making funds are moving around; the same goes for ETFs—sometimes it's just structural allocation, which doesn't immediately translate to buy pressure on the chain.

From a market-making perspective, it seems that what truly influences short-term volatility is often liquidity depth, sentiment, and leverage—whether money is "on the way" is less important than whether people are "daring to trade now." Airdrop seasons are quite similar; as the anti-witchcraft measures on task platforms tighten, points systems become more like clocking in at work, and the noise of moving stablecoins across chains has increased. There's no need to rush to find reasons for every candlestick.

I still believe a slower, more steady approach is better: it's preferable to wait for data to speak for itself rather than rushing to craft a story. Anyway, lately I’ve been trying to do less mental speculation and focus more on fund flows and the real depth changes in pools.