U.S. "Clear Act": The regulatory upheaval Bitcoin has been waiting for is finally coming?

On May 2, 2026, Bitcoin's price rebounded above $78k. The driving forces behind this trend are not only market optimism but also a bill that could change the fate of the U.S. crypto industry—the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act" (CLARITY Act).

A key compromise on stablecoin yield provisions has just been reached, bringing this bill, which had stalled in Congress for over half a year, back onto the legislative track. For the U.S. crypto industry, long plagued by regulatory uncertainty, this may be the closest it has come to a victory so far. However, time is running out—midterm elections are approaching, and the legislative window is rapidly closing.

1. What is the bill? The division of regulatory authority is the core

The full name of the "Clarity Act" is the "2025 Digital Asset Market Clarity Act" (H.R.3633). Its goal is to address a fundamental issue that has troubled the U.S. crypto market for years: Is a digital asset a "security" or a "commodity"? Who should regulate it?

In the past, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) have long overlapping or conflicting jurisdiction over crypto assets—SEC has sued exchanges like Coinbase for listing unregistered securities, while CFTC considers assets like Bitcoin as commodities. Companies often only learn how their products are classified after receiving enforcement notices.

The core aim of the "Clarity Act" is to end this confusion. The bill classifies assets based on their actual behavior rather than their name, establishing three main categories: digital commodities (regulated by CFTC), investment contract assets (regulated by SEC), and payment stablecoins (regulated by banking authorities). More innovatively, the bill introduces the concept of "blockchain maturity"—a token can "graduate" from SEC regulation to CFTC regulation if its underlying network is proven to be sufficiently decentralized.

On March 17 this year, the SEC and CFTC jointly issued interpretive guidelines, initially outlining a five-category system, listing assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP, and 16 others as digital commodities. This joint action is seen as an important prelude to the formal implementation of the Clarity Act.

2. The controversy: Can stablecoins "pay interest"?

Although the bill was passed by the House of Representatives in July 2025 with a bipartisan majority of 294 votes in favor and 134 against, it stalled in the Senate. The obstacle was not the division of regulatory authority but a seemingly technical issue involving huge interests—whether crypto exchanges can offer yields to stablecoin holders.

The banking sector's stance is quite firm. They warn that allowing crypto platforms to pay rewards to stablecoin holders could lead to a large outflow of funds from the banking deposit system. The Independent Community Bankers of America (ICBA) even presented alarming data: community banks could lose $1.3 trillion in deposits and $850 billion in loans as a result.

The crypto industry insists that issuing rewards is a basic business model. Coinbase Chief Policy Officer Faryar Shirzad explicitly stated on social platform X: "Ultimately, the banking sector has secured more restrictions on reward mechanisms, but we have preserved the most fundamental right—the American people's right to earn rewards based on real use of crypto platforms and networks."

In early May 2026, a compromise plan facilitated by Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks was finally implemented: it bans passive yields that are economically or functionally equivalent to bank deposit interest but allows rewards based on "real activity"—such as trading or staking. In other words, the "buy and hold" yield model is not permitted, but a "buy and use" reward system can be retained. The plan also requires the Treasury Department and CFTC to develop detailed rules within a year of the bill's passage to further define these provisions.

3. Progress and outlook: Time is tight, but expectations are rising

After the compromise was reached, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong immediately called for "pushing it forward," and the White House also made its stance clear—President Trump, at the Maaraoga event in late April, directly warned the banking industry that the Clarity Act remains a priority for this administration, and the White House will not allow banks to interfere with the legislative process.

Market predictions responded swiftly. Polymarket data showed that the probability of the "Clarity Act" passing by the end of 2026 once jumped to 67%, up 21 percentage points in 24 hours. The Senate Banking Committee could hold a vote as early as the week of May 11. Industry expects that if all goes well, the bill could be signed into law by summer 2026.

But not everyone is so optimistic. Analysts at crypto investment firm Galaxy believe that the chance of the bill being signed into law in 2026 is "about fifty-fifty, or even lower." CoinDesk cited sources from Senate staff indicating that even if the bill is approved by the Banking Committee, it still needs to be merged and amended with the Senate Agriculture Committee's version before being re-approved by the House, making the process complex.

A bigger concern is the political cycle. The Senate will effectively go into recess from August, as lawmakers focus on the November midterm elections. If the bill cannot complete all legislative procedures by the end of July, it is likely to be shelved. CoinDesk quoted Senator Bernie Moreno warning—"If it can't be advanced after May, progress could be delayed for years."

4. What does this mean for the crypto market?

The significance of the "Clarity Act" goes far beyond a simple regulatory technicality. If ultimately passed, it will be the first comprehensive federal legal framework for the U.S. crypto industry, covering core systems such as trading platform registration, customer fund segregation, anti-money laundering compliance, and market surveillance.

For ordinary investors, the bill requires exchanges to strictly separate customer funds from their own operational funds and mandates the disclosure of risk information for listed tokens—designed precisely to prevent incidents like FTX from recurring. For institutions, the bill ends the previous regulatory hurdles posed by the SAB 121 accounting rule that discouraged banks from custodying crypto assets, clearing the way for large-scale institutional entry.

Another major highlight is that it allows blockchain startups to raise up to $75 million through simplified exemption procedures without undergoing the complex traditional IPO process. Meanwhile, tokens can transition from SEC to CFTC regulation once they meet maturity conditions—this "growth pathway" has no precedent in previous U.S. legal frameworks.

5. Outlook: Not just a bill, but a signal

The "Clarity Act" today carries more than just regulatory technicalities; it signals political resolve and market confidence.

In early 2026, Bitcoin briefly fell to around $60k, with regulatory uncertainty widely seen as a key suppressor. But in the second quarter, with the release of intensive joint frameworks from SEC and CFTC, positive signals from the Bitcoin 2026 conference, and breakthroughs in the Senate deadlock, Bitcoin's price gradually rebounded above $78k. Ethereum whales also significantly increased their holdings, adding 140k ETH worth about $322 million during this legislative window.

Of course, the compromises around stablecoins do not mean the road ahead is obstacle-free. The Senate's timetable remains tight, the versions from both chambers still need reconciliation, and the interests of banks and crypto players will continue to clash in subsequent rulemaking. But for the entire crypto industry, moving from a complete legal gray area toward a basic federal legislative framework—even if imperfect—is a substantial step forward.