Evening Bitcoin Market Outlook

Currently, the market has fallen back below the resistance level of 78,536, and is once again testing the 78,536 threshold. If this time it can successfully hold and break through, it will challenge the early morning high and the previous all-time high, which is in the 79,182-79,457 range of strong resistance; only by effectively breaking through this range can the market continue its upward trend, aiming towards around 80,828. If it faces resistance and cannot break through, it will maintain a range-bound oscillation pattern.
A shooting star pattern has appeared in the upper part of the chart, indicating a typical resistance signal. Seeing this pattern suggests setting up short positions, but only with half of the position on the left side to test the short, betting on a high-level resistance pullback. The subsequent market only slightly retreated to the lower edge of the flag pattern and stopped falling; multiple tests of the flag support did not break it. At this point, risk management for orders is essential: either exit the short positions or set a protective stop-loss, with the stop-loss placed at the early morning high of 79,182. If broken, exit immediately.
It is important to clarify that the overall trend remains upward. Short-term shorts can only capitalize on wave corrections and should not assume a long-term downward pattern; if the market stalls and cannot move downward, it’s time to exit decisively. After a valid break below the flag support, it’s fully appropriate to pursue shorts on the right side in line with the trend.
Additionally, from the volume perspective, this rally has been characterized by decreasing volume, with no significant increase in trading activity, making it difficult for the bulls to sustain strong upward momentum. Even if prices reach near the previous high, failing to hold above that level will form a multiple top structure with the prior high, which is a bearish risk pattern. Once this pattern emerges, the overall market trend will weaken. The key afterward is whether the market can break through the previous high to set a new high. If it fails to break higher, it will likely retest the flag support again or even break below the flag to start a correction.

Trading Suggestions:
- Break above 78,562 with volume and pursue long positions on the right side.
- If 78,025 breaks with volume and cannot recover, pursue short positions on the right side with stop-loss in place.
- On the hourly chart, a break and hold above 78,562 targets 79,457-80,828; if it cannot surpass 78,562, the effort is futile.
- On the 4-hour chart, a break below 78,075 targets 77,043-76,011.