Bitcoin whales have increased their holdings by 41k BTC over the past two weeks, and the number of wallets holding between 10 and 10k BTC continues to rise. The price has also broken through the True Market Mean average price. However, CryptoQuant's research indicates that the April rally was entirely driven by perpetual futures contract demand, while spot demand appears to be shrinking. This divergence—rising futures demand and declining spot demand—has historically appeared at the early stages of a bear market.

In simple terms, this rally is more leverage-driven rather than fueled by new capital entering the market. Once futures positions are unwound, the price could face a correction risk. The current structure is similar to the early 2022 bear market, which warrants caution.
On the other hand, Morgan Stanley increased its holdings by 286 BTC yesterday, bringing total holdings to 2,620 BTC; BlackRock is also opposing the OCC's limit on tokenized reserve assets, indicating that institutional entry remains a long-term trend. However, short-term market sentiment is neutral to bearish, and funding rates show high shorting enthusiasm.
For investors, it’s important to distinguish between short-term leverage-driven volatility and structural capital inflows. The accumulation by whales is a positive signal, but if futures speculation recedes, the market could undergo a cleansing. Stay vigilant and avoid being misled by a single indicator.
$btc #occ