An interesting phenomenon: in recent months, a chart of the ancient market cycle called the Benner Cycle has become popular in the crypto community and among retail investors. This thing has a history of over 150 years, but now it has become a popular tool for predicting market trends in 2025-2026. I took a look at the origins of this market cycle chart, and it’s definitely worth discussing.

The story begins in 1873. A farmer named Samuel Benner lost a lot of money during that financial crisis. Afterwards, he started studying economic laws, and in 1875 published "Business Prophecies of the Future Ups and Downs in Prices," officially proposing this cycle theory. Benner based his derivation of market patterns on the cyclical changes in agricultural product prices; he even believed that solar cycles would influence crop yields, thereby affecting prices. It sounds a bit mystical, but he left a phrase on the chart: "Sure thing." — Just this one phrase, which was rediscovered nearly 200 years later and sparked renewed discussion.

How is this chart used? Simply put, it divides years into three categories: Line A represents panic years, Line B is prosperity years (good for selling), and Line C is recession years (good for buying). Although modern agriculture has changed dramatically, many claim that this cycle chart accurately predicted the Great Depression of 1929, World War II, the tech bubble burst, and even the COVID-19 crash. According to some investors’ analysis, 2023 is the best buying period, and 2026 should be the next market peak. This logic has spread widely in the crypto circle, with many using it to support the argument that there will be a big rally in 2025-2026.

However, the credibility of this market cycle chart has recently been severely tested. In early April 2025, the global economy was suddenly impacted by tariff policies, causing intense market reactions. On April 7, the total crypto market cap plummeted from $2.64 trillion to $2.32 trillion, with some even calling it "Black Monday." At the same time, JPMorgan raised the probability of a global recession in 2025 to 60%, and Goldman Sachs projected a 45% chance of recession within 12 months — the highest level since the post-pandemic era.

Against this backdrop, some veteran traders have begun to question the value of this chart. Some bluntly said that such charts are more about distraction and have no real trading significance. But interestingly, even in the face of recession fears and market volatility, some investors still believe in the cycle theory. Their logic is straightforward: the market is not just numbers, but also emotions, memories, and momentum. As long as enough people believe in this chart, it could create a self-fulfilling effect.

According to Google Trends data, the search interest in "Benner Cycle" has peaked recently. This reflects a phenomenon: when economic and political uncertainties increase, retail investors become more eager for tools that can give them hope and direction — even if those tools are over 150 years old. Whether it’s history repeating itself or a collective psychological illusion, it’s still hard to say.