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Next week's macro outlook: The US and Iran are again at a crossroads! Non-farm payrolls are unlikely to help gold prices break through.
BlockBeats News, May 3 — U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday accused the Tehran leadership of being ununified, hindering an agreement to end the nine-week-long conflict that has triggered a global energy crisis. He said Iran “made requests I cannot agree with,” but some traders interpret this as a negotiation strategy rather than a abandonment of peace efforts.
At the same time, reports that Tehran conveyed a new proposal to Washington through Pakistan also helped push down oil prices. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi stated that Iran is prepared to continue diplomatic efforts with the U.S., but added that its armed forces remain “highly alert.” WTI crude oil closed nearly 3% lower on Friday, around $103 per barrel, up about 7% for the week. The S&P 500 index continued its record-breaking rally on Friday, marking its fifth consecutive week of gains, buoyed by strong earnings reports from tech giants.
Wednesday 20:15, U.S. April ADP employment figures; Thursday 19:30, U.S. April Challenger layoffs; Thursday 23:00, U.S. April New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations.
Friday 20:30, U.S. April unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, average hourly earnings year/month rate.
Friday 22:00, U.S. May one-year inflation expectations initial estimate, U.S. May University of Michigan consumer sentiment index initial estimate, U.S. March wholesale sales month-over-month.
Next week, traders will focus on U.S. employment data, especially the non-farm payroll report on Friday. Analysts predict that the April non-farm payroll report released next Friday will show a steady increase of 60k new jobs, faster wage growth, stable unemployment rate, and rising labor force participation. According to a Bloomberg survey of economists, private sector employment growth may be even stronger.