Bitunix Analyst: Global Central Banks Begin to Synchronize Halt on Forecasts, Market Enters Stagflation Pricing Phase

On May 1, the real change in the market is no longer which central bank is raising or lowering interest rates, but rather that major global central banks have simultaneously entered a ‘wait-and-see mode.’ The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of England are all holding steady, but unlike in the past, no central bank dares to provide a clear direction for the future. The reason is straightforward—after energy prices spiraled out of control, inflation and the economy are moving in opposite directions. The U.S. GDP annualized growth rate for the first quarter was only 2%, below expectations, while the March PCE annual growth rate rose to 3.5%, the highest in nearly three years; the Eurozone’s GDP is nearly stagnant, but inflation has also risen back to 3%; the Bank of England has even begun to hint that it may need to raise interest rates again in the future. This indicates that the global economy is gradually entering a troubling state: growth is beginning to slow, but inflation is heating up again due to energy issues. More importantly, the market is now beginning to realize that the risks in the Middle East may not be resolved in the short term. Although U.S. officials claim that ‘hostilities have ended,’ Trump has simultaneously stated that he may break the ceasefire agreement, Israel has warned that it may take action against Iran again, and the blockade and military pressure in the Strait of Hormuz have not been lifted. This suggests that the current ceasefire is more like a temporary postponement of conflict rather than a genuine resolution of risk. Therefore, global central banks are now caught in the same dilemma: if they maintain high interest rates, the economy will further cool; but if they lower rates too early, high oil prices and supply chain pressures may cause inflation to spiral out of control again. This is also why, despite recent gains in U.S. stocks driven by AI and large tech companies, with Alphabet surging 10% in a single day, the bond market has begun to reprice another issue—high interest rates may remain longer than the market originally expected. The recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields essentially indicates that the market is starting to reprice ‘stagflation risk.’ For the cryptocurrency market, BTC is currently still benefiting from risk asset preferences and institutional inflows, but if the global market begins to shift from ‘soft landing’ back to ‘stagflation trading,’ the volatility of high-valuation assets may significantly increase. Especially as the market begins to question whether the Federal Reserve has lost its capacity for rate cuts and clear direction, liquidity expectations will once again become the biggest source of pressure on risk assets.