Just caught Yellen's latest remarks on US interest rate news and it's worth paying attention to. She's basically saying rate cuts could still happen before year-end, which honestly isn't what most people were expecting a few months ago.

Here's what caught my eye: Yellen pointed out that the Iran situation has created some real uncertainty around oil prices. We're talking about knock-on effects across the entire supply chain - gas prices, LNG, fertilizers, food, shipping, semiconductors. It's not just about crude anymore. She called it a widespread supply shock, which is a pretty significant acknowledgment.

What's interesting is her take on inflation expectations. She mentioned the possibility of needing to hike rates, but then emphasized that long-term inflation expectations remain stable. That's actually the key detail here. If inflation expectations stay anchored, it opens the door for rate cuts rather than hikes.

Her exact words were telling: "I think my guess is that there might be rate cuts by the end of this year. I believe this is entirely possible and the most likely scenario. However, many things could happen." That last part matters - she's leaving room for surprises, but the baseline scenario in her mind is cuts.

So where does this fit into the bigger picture? If we do see US interest rate news shift toward cuts later this year, it could reshape how markets price in various assets. Worth keeping an eye on how this plays out, especially if we get more data on inflation and the geopolitical situation stabilizes or escalates further.