Gold continues to surprise me. Looking at the gold price forecasts from recent years, I notice that the yellow metal market has followed a much more interesting path than many expected. I remember when everyone talked about gold at $2,600 in 2024, and instead the price surpassed those estimates as early as August. Now it's 2026, and the trend remains decidedly bullish.

What’s fascinating is how gold has started setting new all-time highs in all global currencies simultaneously, starting from early 2024. It’s not just an American story. If you look at 50-year charts, you can clearly see two bullish reversal patterns: the long descending wedge of the 80s-90s and then the cup and handle formation between 2013 and 2023. These long consolidations generate strong movements. History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes, as they say.

I’ve always believed that quality gold price forecasts depend on a solid methodology, not on clicks and likes on social media. The real drivers are three: inflation expectations (the dominant factor), monetary dynamics, and intermarket indicators like the euro-dollar exchange rate and bond yields. M2 and CPI continue to grow steadily, supporting a moderate bullish trend. Inflation expectations follow a secular upward channel that everything suggests will continue.

Regarding forecasts, in 2025 gold hit $3,100 as predicted. In 2026, we are heading toward $3,900. The target for 2030 remains $5,000. It’s interesting to note that most financial institutions (Goldman Sachs, UBS, BofA, J.P. Morgan, Citi) focused around $2,700–$2,800 for 2025, while we were more optimistic. The data so far has proven us right.

One point often underestimated: gold does not thrive during recessions. It is positively correlated with both inflation expectations and the S&P 500. When the TIP ETF rises, gold rises. When it falls, everything falls. This correlation has been historically consistent with few exceptions.

Regarding futures market positions, commercial traders still hold very high net short positions. This technically limits the potential for immediate upside, but does not invalidate the underlying bullish thesis. It simply means the trend will be moderate, not explosive.

A question I often get: gold or silver? The answer is both, but at different phases. Silver tends to accelerate its move in a later phase of the bull market. The historical gold-silver ratio confirms this. The target for silver remains $50, but it will arrive later.

For those asking how much gold will be worth in 5-10 years, the peak by 2030 should be between $4,500 and $5,000 under normal market conditions. If inflation spirals out of control like in the 70s, we could see $10,000. But for now, the trend is clear: bullish, but gradual. Gold price forecasts remain constructive as long as the price does not fall and stays below $1,770, which currently seems unlikely.