BTC Short-term 1–3 months (May–July) trend analysis: high-level range-bound oscillation, prioritize caution against pullbacks

Key conclusion: Overall maintaining a high-level range of 75k–85k, with insufficient momentum for a strong upward breakout, and limited downside space for deep declines.
✅ Key support levels
75k is a strong short-term support, 70k is a core very strong defensive level; combined with continuous inflows into spot ETFs and institutional long-term support, the downward decline is firmly locked in.
⚠️ Key resistance levels
82k–85k is the first strong resistance zone, with 90k being an even heavier resistance; currently, profit-taking is heavy in the market, combined with traditional seasonal selling pressure in May, making a strong short-term breakout difficult.
Core influencing catalysts
1. The Federal Reserve’s June interest rate decision, if it results in rate cuts, will directly boost bullish market expectations;
2. The flow of funds into spot ETFs is the key to breaking through, with daily net inflows maintaining above 5,000 BTC, increasing the chance of breaking through 85k resistance;
3. Changes in geopolitical situations in the Middle East, Iran, and other regions, if tensions escalate again, could trigger market risk-averse volatility.
Likely operational path
The market will repeatedly fluctuate within the 75k–85k range, fully digesting high-level profit-taking before attempting to hit new highs; during this process, a normal correction of 5%–10% is likely, such as falling from 80k to around 72k, which is part of a healthy adjustment rhythm.