On May 3, CryptoQuant research director Julio Moreno wrote in a report: “Perpetual futures contract demand is the only driving force behind Bitcoin’s price increase in April, while spot apparent demand continues to contract. This structure has historically appeared in bear markets and is often difficult to sustain during a rally.”

Moreno said that this divergence, with futures demand rising and spot demand shrinking, is one of the clearest signals on-chain, indicating that this uptrend is more speculative rather than structural growth. He pointed out that this means the price increase is mainly driven by leverage, not by new inflows of Bitcoin capital.

Moreno also said: “Historically, this kind of structure lacks the foundation to support a sustained rise in prices. Once futures positions begin to unwind, it is usually corrected through a price pullback.”
CryptoQuant stated that the demand structure currently driven by perpetual futures is similar to the situation at the beginning of the 2022 bear market. While this does not mean the same outcome will necessarily occur this time, the current structure does indeed carry “significant downside risk”.#美国寻求战略比特币储备 $BTC