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Just came across this fascinating historical framework from Samuel Benner back in 1875 about predicting economic cycles. The guy was basically trying to map out periods when to make money by identifying patterns in financial markets – booms, recessions, and panics.
Here's how it breaks down. Benner noticed that panic years tend to hit roughly every 18-20 years. These are the periods you really want to be careful – think 1927, 1945, 1965, 1981, 1999, 2019. The pattern suggests 2035 and 2053 could follow the same timeline. During these years, markets can collapse hard, so the advice is don't panic sell and stay cautious.
Then there are the boom years – the golden periods when prices are rising and markets recovering strong. This is when you actually want to be selling and taking profits. We've seen this play out in years like 1928, 1960, 1973, 1989, 2000, 2007, 2016, 2020. Looking ahead, 2026 is marked as a boom year in this cycle, which could be interesting timing.
The flip side is the recession years – when prices are bottomed out and the economy is struggling. 1924, 1931, 1942, 1958, 1978, 1985, 1996, 2005, 2012, 2023. These are actually the best opportunities if you've got capital. Buy when everyone's scared, hold through the recovery, then sell when the boom hits.
So the basic strategy is pretty straightforward: identify the periods when to make money by understanding where you are in this cycle. Buy low during recessions, wait it out, sell high during booms, and avoid getting caught off guard in panic years.
Now here's the thing – this is based on historical patterns and cyclical thinking, not some guaranteed formula. Real markets get hit by wars, politics, tech breakthroughs, unexpected economic shocks. But as a long-term framework for understanding market rhythms, it's actually pretty interesting to keep in mind. Worth knowing the periods when to make money historically have followed these patterns, even if the future won't be an exact replay.