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I saw an interesting analysis circulating from Société Générale that highlights a detail many might have missed about the dollar. Essentially, Trump's push for dollar depreciation and lower interest rates seems to be creating a sort of brake on the performance of the US currency, despite US economic data remaining solid.
What stands out is that the numbers on economic growth and inflation prospects are not supporting the dollar as one might expect. Trump continues to push for rate cuts, and this message seems to weigh more than the positive economic fundamentals. It's a somewhat counterintuitive dynamic if you think about it.
Dollar depreciation could accelerate if the geopolitical scenario with Iran remains stable, without further escalation. In that case, according to the projections I circulate, we might see the euro rise toward 1.20 in the coming weeks. It's a scenario worth monitoring, especially if you're exposed to these currency pairs.
Basically, the narrative of a possible dollar depreciation is gaining ground among analysts, and markets already seem to be pricing in this possibility. It's advisable to keep an eye on how this situation develops in the coming days.