Bitcoin is sending an interesting signal. The MVRV indicator has fallen to 1.1, which is said to be the lowest level since early 2023. The current price is around the $78,000 range, down about 38% from last year’s peak of $126,000.

The reason this indicator matters is that 1.0 has historically lined up with cycle bottoms. When MVRV last dipped below 1.0 in early 2023, a rally of more than 500% followed. That said, what’s interesting this time is that the peak of this bull market has been more gradual than in the past. At the 2017 and 2021 highs, MVRV rose above 3.5, but in October last year it only reached around 2.28.

Besides MVRV, there are other indicators worth watching. The Z-Score recorded -2.66, which points to a capitulation range—more extreme even than the capitulation phases of March 2015, 2018, 2020, and 2022. Long-term holders reportedly also reduced their holdings by about 245,000 BTC over the most recent single day, and this kind of distribution pattern has often appeared before bottoms in the past.

However, not all analysts view this as an immediate recovery signal. In fact, there are also projections that further corrections could continue through Q4 2026, and target price ranges of $40,000–$50,000 have been suggested. In other words, it’s difficult to conclude that a bottom is in just because the MVRV ratio is low.