Gold Analysis

Core conclusion: Volatility is slightly bullish, buy high and sell low within the range

On Friday, gold prices bottomed out and rebounded, closing above 4610 (the 38.2% retracement level of this wave), indicating strong buying pressure below and the potential for a continued small bullish trend in the short term. However, note that the evening decline was not small, suggesting that it is not an extremely strong one-way market. At the beginning of next week, it should still be approached with a slightly bullish and volatile mindset, just with a slightly wider range than before.

Key Market Signals

1. Repeating pattern: This Friday and last Friday's rhythm are exactly the same—slightly weak during the day, then a rebound in the evening. At the same time, there has been a cycle of “Monday opening low, bottoming out, and filling the gap” for three consecutive weeks. Whether this pattern continues next Monday is a key focus at the open.
2. Bull-bear divergence: A strong trend should not have a significant pullback. Since a noticeable decline has occurred, it indicates selling pressure above. The risk-reward ratio of chasing longs directly is not good; pinpointing key levels is more important than trend direction judgment.

Specific trading strategies for early next week

· Main idea: Play for a second surge, only take long positions when the key support is first touched, do not chase the rally.
· Entry zone: Enter long positions on a pullback to 4600-4605. This is the confirmed support after the evening bottoming and rebound.
· Defensive position: Place stop-loss below 4590. If this level is broken, the short-term bullish structure will be undermined.
· Target levels: First target at 4630, and after breaking that, look around 4640.
· Potential variables: If there is another low open on Monday, pay attention to the strength of gap filling. As long as 4590 is not broken, the above low-buy strategy remains valid.