Sometimes on-chain transfers really feel like mysticism: A sends some small change to B, then B sends to C two minutes later, and a bunch of people start shouting "coincidence transfer" or "inside job." These days, I just wrote a small script to break down these "coincidences" by path: first checking if they are from the same batch of funds split and then consolidated (common for pooling/distribution), then comparing whether they pass through exchange hot wallets or bridge contracts, and only then suspect manual operations. Basically, it's just automation + change fees; it looks mysterious but is actually quite straightforward.

By the way, it's pretty outrageous that hardware wallets are out of stock, and phishing links are everywhere... The more these happen, the less you should focus solely on "who transferred to whom." First, tighten your own signature, authorization, and fake domain protections. On-chain paths can be explained; if they can't, treat them as risks, not as a mystery.