$BTC 📊 May 3 BTC Latest Strategy Analysis

BTC：
After bottoming out near 77,979, the price rebounded sharply and quickly surged to a high of 79,145 in the short term. Then it met resistance, fell back under pressure, and currently the price has broken below the Bollinger Bands’ middle band on the 15-minute level, moving below the middle band. Short-term bearish momentum is currently dominant. Signs of a turn have appeared in the Bollinger Bands upper band; the band’s opening has shifted from expansion to convergence. The price remains pressured by the middle band and continues to fall. The middle band at 78,339.3 and the lower band at 77,847.8 form a step-like structure of resistance and support. MACD reads: DIF = -115.9, DEA = -89.2, MACD = -53.5; the green histogram bars continue to enlarge, indicating bearish momentum is gradually strengthening. After the spike, trading volume shows a clear contraction, and sell-side pressure is dominating the short-term market.
📉 Bearish Logic：
The range 78,300-78,500 above is a strong intraday resistance zone. When the price rebounds into this area, it is suppressed by both the Bollinger Bands middle band and the prior high-pullback platform, so the weak downward trend is unlikely to be changed by the rebound. If the price cannot effectively break above the Bollinger Bands middle band at 78,500, the subsequent outlook is likely to continue moving downward. First, look for the 78,000 target. After a breakdown, the price may further test the 77,800-77,600 range. In extreme conditions, it could test the 77,500 prior low support.
⚠️ Risk Warning：
If the price re-breaks above the Bollinger Bands upper band pressure at 78,830, and MACD shows a bullish divergence with the bottom, while trading volume continues to expand, the bearish trend may quickly reverse. Be cautious of a rebound toward 79,000-79,200, and set a stop-loss strictly to mitigate the risk of a trend reversal.
🎯 Main Strategy: Bearish
• Short entry range: 78,300-78,500
• First target: 77,500
• Second target: 77,000
• Stop-loss level: 79,000