Brother Tong's BTC Public Outlook

Bitcoin Bull-Bear Battle: Technicals Favor Bullish, But Hidden Traps
Current Price around 78,200 is the key battleground for bulls and bears.
1. Technical Analysis: Clear Bullish Structure, Low Cost-Effectiveness for Chase Buying

Daily chart stabilizes above the 100-day moving average (about 72,000), breaking the long-term bear market downtrend, marking the first structural shift after the cycle high; 4-hour chart shows a breakout-retest pattern, RSI above 60, bullish momentum dominant.

In April, BTC gained approximately 11.87%, the strongest monthly increase since 2026; Fear & Greed Index recovered from 27 (extreme fear) to 39 (fear zone), sentiment slowly improving but not entering greed, cautious about chasing high.

Key Levels:
Resistance: 79,000–79,500 (first), 80,000–82,000 (strong), volume breakout targets 86,000–88,000

Support: 77,000–77,200 (short-term), 75,000–76,000 (strong)

2. Market Capital: Institutions Quietly Accumulating, Retail Generally Bearish

On May 1, spot ETF net inflow was $629.8 million (BlackRock IBIT accounted for $284.4 million), marking the first large inflow after three consecutive net outflows; April ETF net inflow was about $2–2.4 billion, institutions continue low-level accumulation.

Whale addresses (holding 10–10,000 coins) increased to 3.09 million coins, a near 5-month high; since April 10, they accumulated an additional 40,967 coins, large holders continue locking positions.

The 8-hour network funding rate is -0.0014%, indicating ongoing bearish sentiment in futures; the market shows a pattern of “institutions accumulating, retail bearish,” negative funding rate does not mean immediate decline, only reflects active bull-bear switching.

3. On-Chain Chips: All the Pressure Above 80,000 Is for Liquidation

Currently, 64.2% of circulating chips are in profit; the 80,000–125,000 range contains a large amount of trapped positions from late 2025, hitting this zone triggers mass profit-taking pressure, making sustained volume breakthroughs difficult.

Weekend sideways consolidation with light trading, small capital movements can easily trigger shakeouts.

4. Macro Environment: High Interest Rates Suppress All Year, Policy Changes Key

On April 29, the FOMC kept rates unchanged, with the full-year rate cut expectation dropping from over 80% to about 30%, high interest rates continue to suppress risk assets.

On May 15, Powell’s term ends, with popular successor Kevin Warsh having a crypto-friendly background; future monetary policy direction remains a key variable for the year.

Geopolitical tensions eased short-term but risks remain; any escalation could directly impact the crypto market with risk-off sentiment.

5. Practical Conclusions and Trading Strategies

Overall trend favors bullishness, but chasing above 78,000 is prone to whipsaws, focus on buying low, avoid chasing high.

Long Strategy:
Entry: Buy on dips around 77,000–77,500 with stabilization
Stop-loss: below 76,500
First target: 78,500
Second target: 79,500 (if not effectively broken, consider shorting)