#Gate广场五月交易分享 Negotiation failure—be cautious with gold and crude oil on Monday

—— The US-Iran dispute has lasted 60 days, and the crisis is spreading
Over the weekend, new developments in the US-Iran conflict surfaced again. Negotiations broke down once more, and after Trump’s 60-day ceasefire, he is preparing to restart airstrike operations against Iran—making the Monday market tense again throughout the weekend.
There is a possibility that the US will restart airstrikes on Iran.
Trump posted on social media, saying he will soon review Iran’s latest submitted proposal, but he “cannot imagine” the proposal being “acceptable,” and he threatened that Iran “has not yet paid a big enough price.” In response to the 9 proposals the US previously put forward, Iran has submitted a plan through Pakistan containing 14 items.
—— What will happen to gold and crude oil on Monday?
The US-Iran conflict has already lasted for more than 60 days—this is the 60th day of the world’s energy crisis. Since the strait was sealed off, countries around the world, especially those in Asia and Europe, have already reached the end of their energy reserves. If the strait is still not opened before June, the real crisis will quickly appear in front of everyone.
Gold: Every time negotiations break down, gold almost always opens with a gap down. Tomorrow may very likely also see a gap-down opening. Although on Friday both sides’ talks brought some good news, causing gold to surge quickly to around the 4660 resistance level, tomorrow’s open may give back the gains from Friday. With 4660 continuing to act as resistance, the bearish view is still in play for now. If price opens strong and keeps rising, then upside space will open up—the key resistance to watch is 4800.
Crude Oil: Recent market
The craziness of crude oil’s rise needs no further explanation. After all, as long as the strait remains blocked for even one day, the crude oil market will not return to pre-war prices. Although on Friday it again ran into Trump’s TACO trade and saw a pullback in the short term, the long-term trend still moves slowly upward. Only one theory should be remembered in the crude oil market now: don’t chase higher prices—keep buying on dips at low levels, and if you take profit after prices reach highs, you can be very satisfied with the results.
“Big cake” (Bitcoin): After the Federal Reserve meeting ended, it seems there is a possibility of surging toward 80,000. However, looking at the 4-year cycle, we still need to follow the cycle’s guidance. It is already May now, and the next 4 months are extremely critical. September to October—meaning the end of the year—is the bottom of the 4-year cycle. It is usually accompanied by weak, choppy price action that makes everyone lose confidence. But precisely then is when the bottom forms. So buying timing will come soon—we just need to wait and let the opportunity come to us.
Disclaimer: All data is from historical backtests, does not constitute real data on the ground, and is for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice.