CryptoQuant: Bitcoin's April rally was mainly driven by "speculative factors," and caution should be exercised regarding correction risks

Golden Finance reports that on May 3rd, CryptoQuant research director Julio Moreno wrote in a report: “The demand for perpetual futures contracts is the only driving force behind Bitcoin’s price increase in April, while spot demand remains continuously shrinking. This structure has historically appeared during bear markets and is often difficult to sustain in an upward trend.”
Moreno stated that this divergence, with rising futures demand and shrinking spot demand, is one of the clearest signals on-chain, indicating that this rally is more speculative than structurally driven. He pointed out that this means the price increase is mainly driven by leverage rather than new Bitcoin capital inflows.
Moreno also said, “Historically, this kind of structure lacks the fundamentals to support sustained price increases, and once futures positions start to unwind, it usually results in a price correction.”
CryptoQuant stated that the current demand structure driven by perpetual futures is similar to the situation at the beginning of the 2022 bear market. While this does not necessarily mean the same outcome will occur, the current structure indeed carries “significant downside risk.”