CryptoQuant: Bitcoin's April Rise Driven by Speculative Factors, Caution Advised for Pullback Risks

On May 3, Julio Moreno, the research director at CryptoQuant, stated in a report: “The demand for perpetual futures contracts is the sole driving force behind Bitcoin’s price increase in April, while apparent demand in the spot market continues to shrink. This structure historically tends to appear in bear markets and is often difficult to sustain.” Moreno noted that the divergence between rising futures demand and shrinking spot demand is one of the clearest on-chain signals indicating that this rally is more speculative rather than driven by structural growth. He pointed out that this means the price increase is primarily fueled by leverage rather than new inflows of Bitcoin. Moreno also remarked: “Historically, such structures lack the foundation to support sustained price increases, and once futures positions begin to unwind, it typically leads to price corrections.” CryptoQuant indicated that the current demand structure driven by perpetual futures is similar to the situation at the beginning of the bear market in 2022. While this does not guarantee the same outcome this time, the current structure does present “significant downside risks.”