CryptoQuant: Bitcoin's rise is mainly driven by speculation, with a risk of pullback

Mars Finance News, CryptoQuant Research Director Julio Moreno wrote in a report: “The demand for perpetual futures contracts is the sole driving force behind the rise in Bitcoin prices, while spot demand continues to shrink. This structure has historically appeared during bear markets and is often difficult to sustain in an upward trend.” Moreno stated that this divergence, with rising futures demand and shrinking spot demand, is one of the clearest on-chain signals, indicating that this rally is more speculative than driven by structural growth. He pointed out that this means the price increase is mainly fueled by leverage rather than new Bitcoin capital inflows. Moreno also said, “Historically, this kind of structure lacks the fundamentals to support a sustained price increase. Once futures positions start to unwind, it usually results in a price correction.” CryptoQuant indicated that the current demand structure driven by perpetual futures is similar to the situation at the beginning of the 2022 bear market. While this does not necessarily mean the same outcome will occur this time, the current structure does carry significant downside risk.