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The blockade of Hormuz, isn't the most anxious party actually not the United States?
Recently, Iran has resubmitted negotiation proposals, starting with nuclear issues, as a way to give Trump a stepping stone.
But now the situation is a bit awkward: blocking Hormuz doesn't hurt the U.S., Israel, or Saudi Arabia, but instead harms others.
Who is the most anxious?
United States: the world's largest oil exporter, when oil prices rise, they earn more (inflation is an internal redistribution issue, exports earn net revenue).
Saudi Arabia: although Hormuz exports decrease, Red Sea exports increase, and when oil prices rise, total income actually increases by 10%.
Israel: small in size, imports from Azerbaijan, can withstand price increases.
Who is hurt the most?
Export side: UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, oil revenues plummet.
Import side: East Asian and South Asian countries.
Japan and South Korea make huge profits from AI chips, easily absorbing oil price pressures.
India is the worst off, with traditional industries heavily reliant on oil, missing out on AI dividends, and the stock market almost crashing like the Hang Seng.
China: hurt but can endure, chemical and new energy sectors have rebounded a bit with price increases.
The blockade of Hormuz, the real parties who are anxious are actually those voiceless passing countries.
Trump is not anxious, Japan and South Korea are not anxious, the most anxious is the third brother (India). #Gate广场五月交易分享
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