CryptoQuant Research Director: Perpetual futures contracts are the only driving force behind Bitcoin's April price increase

Deep Tide TechFlow news: On May 03, CryptoQuant research director Julio Moreno wrote in a report, “The demand for perpetual futures contracts is the only driver behind Bitcoin’s price rise in April, while apparent spot demand continues to contract. This kind of structure has historically appeared during bear markets and is often difficult to sustain during an uptrend.”

Moreno said that the divergence—futures demand rising while spot demand shrinks—is one of the clearest signals on-chain, indicating that this rally is more tilted toward speculation rather than structural growth. He pointed out that this means the price increase is driven mainly by leverage, not by new inflows of Bitcoin capital.

Moreno also noted, “From a historical perspective, this type of structure lacks the foundation to support a sustained rise in prices. Once futures positions begin to unwind, it typically corrects itself through a price pullback.”

CryptoQuant said that the current demand structure driven by perpetual futures is similar to the situation at the beginning of the 2022 bear market. While this does not necessarily mean the same outcome will happen this time, the current structure does carry “significant downside risk.”