‍#Gate广场五月交易分享 After the Bitcoin halving, the supply and demand landscape is being reshaped. Are institutional funds now in control? 1. Core Event: The Fourth Halving Comes to Pass, Entering a New Phase in the Cycle On April 20, 2024, the Bitcoin network completed its fourth block reward halving, reducing the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. The daily new supply decreased from approximately 900 BTC to about 450 BTC, and the annual inflation rate officially fell below 1% (to 0.85%), making it one of the lowest inflation assets globally. Looking back at the price performance after the previous three halvings: • 2012 first halving: subsequent 12-month increase of about 100 times • 2016 second halving: subsequent 12-month increase of about 30 times • 2020 third halving: subsequent 12-month increase of about 7 times Unlike the previous three, the core feature of this halving is that institutional funds have become the absolute dominant force, with retail investor share continuously declining, market volatility significantly reduced, and the cycle logic shifting from "pure speculation" to "macro asset allocation." As of April 2026, institutions hold approximately 24%-28% of the circulating BTC supply, up about 17 percentage points from the 2020 halving. 2. Supply and Demand Landscape: Rigid Supply Contraction, Structural Demand Explosion 1. Supply Side: Further Strengthening of Absolute Scarcity After the halving, the annual new supply of Bitcoin is only about 164k coins, while the global annual gold supply is about 3,000 tons (corresponding to a market value of approximately $1.8 trillion). Bitcoin’s scarcity has far surpassed gold. Bloomberg Industry Research estimates that if current demand growth continues, the supply-demand gap in 2026 will reach 100k–120k BTC, the highest in history. More importantly, the selling pressure from long-term holders (holding for over a year) continues to decrease. As of April 25, long-term holder addresses account for 74%-76% of the total, a record high, and net outflows over the past 30 days are only about 12k BTC, far below the average after previous halvings, indicating a significant increase in market consensus on long-term value. 2. Demand Side: Three Major Inflows of Capital • Spot ETF Funds: Since the launch of the US Bitcoin spot ETF in January 2025, net inflows have exceeded $78–85 billion, with BlackRock’s iBIT product alone seeing net inflows over $40–42 billion. In the first week after the halving, daily net inflows peaked at $1.6–1.87 billion, a record high. • Sovereign Funds and Pensions: By Q1 2026, 15–17 sovereign funds and 20–23 large pension funds have allocated BTC, with total holdings exceeding $11–12 billion. The Canada Pension Plan (CPP) holds $2.8 billion, becoming the first national pension fund to make large-scale BTC allocations. • Corporate Treasuries: Besides Tesla and MicroStrategy, by 2026, 30–32 S&P 500 companies have included BTC on their balance sheets, with total holdings over $14–15 billion. Corporate allocations have shifted from "occasional attempts" to "widespread acceptance." 3. Institutional Consensus: BTC Becomes a Standard in Macro Asset Allocation A Bloomberg survey of 120 major global asset management firms shows that 62%-68% have incorporated BTC into their portfolios, a 32 percentage point increase from early 2025; among them, 42%-45% allocate 1%-3%, and 10%-12% allocate over 5%. The core logic widely recognized by institutions: 1. Inflation Hedge Property: In the context of persistent global central bank easing and fiat currency devaluation, BTC’s fixed supply makes it one of the best inflation hedges. 2. Low Correlation: BTC’s correlation with US stocks and US bonds has remained below 0.3 for a long time, effectively diversifying traditional investment risks. 3. Liquidity Improvement: The launch of spot ETFs has significantly enhanced BTC’s liquidity, with bid-ask spreads decreasing from 0.5% in 2020 to 0.05% now, approaching the liquidity levels of mainstream stocks. Goldman Sachs’s latest research report states that if the global asset management industry allocates 1% of assets to BTC, the market cap would reach $3.5 trillion, about 70% higher than current levels; increasing the allocation to 3% could push the market cap beyond $10 trillion. 4. Macro Environment: Rate Cut Expectations Delayed, Liquidity Still Favorable The current macro environment remains friendly to BTC, but the Federal Reserve has not entered a rate-cut cycle. At the March FOMC meeting, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, with no rate cuts, and due to Middle East conflicts and rising oil prices, rate cut expectations have been significantly postponed. The market currently expects at most one rate cut in 2026 (by 25 basis points), likely in the second half of the year, rather than the 3–4 cuts initially forecasted. Although a rate-cut cycle has not yet begun, liquidity remains ample, and real interest rates have not tightened further, which continues to benefit risk assets and cryptocurrencies. Historical patterns show that rising rate cut expectations often benefit BTC more than actual rate cuts. The market is currently pricing in "possible rate cuts in the second half," combined with a weakening dollar, which continues to benefit BTC priced in USD. Additionally, uncertainties around the US presidential election are boosting safe-haven demand. If policies stabilize and regulatory frameworks become clearer, it will further support BTC’s role as an alternative asset. The fourth halving of Bitcoin marks the beginning of a new phase in its cycle. The rigid contraction of supply and the structural explosion of demand create a strong supply-demand gap, while ongoing institutional inflows are reshaping market valuation systems. In the short term, BTC may fluctuate between $70,000 and $90,000 to digest profit-taking after the halving; in the medium to long term, with increasing institutional allocations and further macroeconomic easing, BTC is expected to break through $100k by the end of 2026 and reach $150,000 in 2027. For investors, BTC is no longer a high-risk speculative asset but an important component of macro asset allocation.-0.2%