The recent international gold market continues its high-level tug-of-war, with fierce battles around the $4,600 mark, drawing the attention of global investors amid volatility.

As of May 3rd, spot gold closed at $4,615.48 per ounce on Friday, with a weekly decline of approximately 1.6% to 2.05%. Notably, it previously dipped to a low of $4,559 during intraday trading. During the May Day holiday, liquidity was relatively weak, and the market experienced narrow fluctuations, continuing the overall weak and bottoming trend seen during the week.

Fundamental and monetary factors are resonating to suppress prices. The global energy crisis triggered by the Iran conflict continues to intensify, with soaring Brent crude oil prices fueling inflation concerns. Major central banks' policy stances have become significantly more hawkish. The Federal Reserve's April meeting decided to keep interest rates unchanged, but Powell stated that the committee has had extensive discussions about "removing accommodative policies," which was interpreted by the market as a more hawkish signal. The dual pressure of high inflation expectations and high interest rate environment has strengthened the view that rate cuts in 2026 are unlikely, with the first cut possibly delayed until 2027. On the monetary front, the world's largest gold ETF has been reducing holdings for eight consecutive trading days, with a total decrease of 21.424 tons, clearly indicating a short-term risk-averse retreat by institutions.

The core logic of the bullish and bearish battle is showing deep divergence. Bears focus on the persistent suppression of non-yielding gold by high real interest rates, while energy prices driving inflation are undermining traditional safe-haven demand. Bulls point out that signals of marginal easing in Iran negotiations, combined with ISM data reinforcing stagflation trading logic, and a weakening dollar, are all supportive of higher gold prices. Demand for gold bars and coins in markets like China and India has increased significantly year-over-year, providing important support for higher levels.

Technically, spot gold has repeatedly tested the critical support zone between $4,500 and $4,585, with rebounds continuously facing previous resistance at $4,650 to $4,680. The subsequent development of Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions and Federal Reserve policy movements will influence the pace. If prices can hold the key support levels, a rebound trend may gather momentum. However, until resistance above is effectively broken, the market is likely to remain in a high-volatility range with oscillations. #Gate广场五月交易分享