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Just came across something interesting about market cycles that's been on my mind. There's this old theory from Samuel Benner back in 1875 where he tried to map out economic patterns – boom, recession, panic – repeating roughly every 18-20 years. Whether you believe in it or not, the pattern is actually kind of wild when you look at the data.
So here's how it breaks down. You've got panic years – these are the rough times when financial crises hit and markets collapse. Think 1927, 1945, 1965, 1981, 1999, 2019... and supposedly 2035, 2053 coming up. During these periods when to make money is counterintuitive – you're not selling, you're holding tight and staying cautious.
Then there are the boom years, the ones everyone talks about. Markets recover, prices surge, everything feels good. 1928, 1943, 1960, 1973, 1989, 2000, 2007, 2016, 2020... and here's the kicker – 2026 is supposedly one of these years. This is when you actually take profits and sell. That's the real opportunity if you've been patient.
But the real money move? It's in the recession years – 1924, 1931, 1942, 1951, 1958, 1978, 1985, 2005, 2012, 2023, 2032... Prices are crushed, economy's struggling, everyone's scared. This is when you buy. Stocks, assets, commodities – everything's on sale. Then you hold through the boom and sell when things peak.
The basic strategy is simple: buy when things are terrible and cheap, wait for the boom to arrive, then sell at the top. Avoid panic selling in crisis years. It's a long-term game, not day trading.
Now, important caveat – this isn't some magic formula. Markets get influenced by politics, wars, tech breakthroughs, policy shifts, all kinds of unpredictable stuff. But as a framework for understanding long-term market cycles and periods when to make money? It's actually a solid lens to think through. Worth keeping in mind when planning your positions.