Lately, the more I watch the market, the more I feel that interest rates don't directly determine the rise or fall, but they gradually take away everyone's confidence: when risk-free returns rise, those willing to hold volatile positions naturally shrink, and even "I'll wait for a pullback" turns into "Forget it, I'll reduce my position first." I have the same feeling when watching large addresses; those adding to their positions aren't just going all-in with one shot, but rather splitting into several parts, routing around, and finally slowly approaching or withdrawing from exchanges, so the sentiment isn't so straightforward.

On the extreme side of funding rates, whether the group argues about a reversal or continues to inflate the bubble, I don't guess the conclusion. I just watch who still dares to chase at high rates and who starts to split their positions into smaller parts to recover margin. When risk appetite drops, actions tend to be "cautious but persistent." For now, I'll do that. I'm going to double-check the addresses with net inflow to a few exchanges tonight.