Good evening, everyone. I know that right now many people are staring at candlestick charts on their phones.

How much is Ethereum worth right now—exactly?
As of the time of this post, ETH is quoted at $2,303.
Do you feel like this price can’t seem to go up or down, and it’s a bit frustrating to watch? Don’t worry—this level is very critical tonight. Let’s peel it layer by layer and take a closer look.

📊 Price action: sideways on the surface, the night before a turning point

· “A slight dip and sideways”
In the past 24 hours, it barely moved. But the calmer the water surface, the more turbulent it often is underneath.
· The real situation: the big showdown is at 2,190 and 2,405.
The few hundred dollars of fluctuation you have in hand is just “interest.” The market makers are watching the “principal” in the order of 800 million USD. Once it falls below 2,196, mainstream exchanges will directly liquidate $491 million worth of long positions; if it breaks upward above 2,405, the shorts will also have to cough up $485 million. Just a 200-dollar difference—big volatility is about to hit.

⛓️ On-chain indicators: some people are catching bids, and some are running

· Good news (the buyers / “bag-catchers”):
The Ethereum Foundation has sold another 10,000 ETH to institutions.
Don’t rush to scold! This time it was an over-the-counter (OTC) transaction—no dump. The buyer is **Tom Lee’s company**. They already have 5 million ETH and are still accumulating. This suggests that the real “smart money” is positioning for the long term.
· Bad news (selling pressure):
Although this move by the Foundation is driven by financial needs, it’s undeniably nauseating from an emotions standpoint. Also, a certain big player is long with 25x leverage, with a liquidation price at 2,229. The thing market makers like to do most is to blow up such big accounts first.

🌍 Macro and capital flows: this is the biggest “mine”

· Macro turning point:
The Federal Reserve is discussing “rate hikes” again—it’s no longer rate cuts. For risk assets, it’s like a sword hanging overhead.
· Risk appetite:
Lately everyone has been buying XRP and SOL, while the ETFs for BTC and ETH are actually seeing net outflows. This shows that the money right now is only “rotating,” not “increasing.” To push ETH higher requires more ammunition than before.

💎 Trading plan: where is the bottom line?

Right now, the market is extremely divided between bulls and bears.

· My logic:
Better to chase the rally than to try to catch the bottom.
The current rebound has no volume, and it’s being capped by the resistance zone at 2,340 - 2,360. If this move can’t even get above 2,340, then it’s just a continuation of the downtrend.
· Specific strategy:
Don’t rush to place trades—wait until the signals are clear before acting.

1. Long strategy:
You must wait for a 15-minute timeframe candlestick close to hold firmly above 2,330.
· Entry: 2,335 - 2,345
· Stop loss: 2,280 (give the market makers a little room to “poke the pin”)
· Position size: 3-4 tenths (30%-40%); this is a bet on “filling the CME gap,” targeting 2,400.
2. Short strategy:
If the rebound reaches the 2,390 - 2,410 area and forms an upper wick, or if it effectively breaks down below 2,280.
· Entry: 2,380 - 2,400 for sluggishness / or 2,270 on a weak dead-cat bounce
· Stop loss: 2,435
· Target: 2,200

Friends, the current market is like calm before a storm.

Do you believe that the “bro” who went all-in with 25x leverage—the “buddy”—can pull the market up, or do you think the market makers will first poke it downward to liquidate the longs before pushing higher?

Leave your take in the comments: Will ETH go up to 2400 first tonight, or drop to 2200 first? #WCTC交易王PK $ETH