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Recently, looking at options markets has been quite interesting. To put it simply, the time value is ticking away every day, like money being deducted steadily. If you're a buyer, it's like starting a timer waiting for the story to unfold; if you're a seller, it's more like collecting rent. When the market is steady, you can slowly drain the other side.
The problem is everyone loves to "buy possibilities," but those possibilities are the most expensive, especially when you judge the direction correctly but miss the timing. That kind of frustration is quite familiar...
These days, modules and DA layers are heating up again. Developers are talking excitedly, while users are left confused. I find myself thinking: with such a loud narrative, isn't it more suitable for sellers? The hype pushes implied volatility higher, making the time value even more lucrative. In the end, who is really being eaten? It’s clear at a glance.
I no longer believe that "as long as the story is big enough, the market will wait for you." Now, I prefer to be a bit slower, pay less tuition, and first see who is collecting rent before making a move.