Recently, I see people taking "the supply of stablecoins has increased again" as a universal explanation, and casually adding "ETF is attracting funds, so it’s about to take off," which makes me a bit amused… The correlation really isn’t causation. When stablecoins increase, it could be because funds are preparing to enter off-chain, or it could just be moving, market making, or even waiting for redemption; ETF inflows and outflows are the same, with funds looping around, and you just treat it as a one-way arrow—too simplistic.

What’s even more absurd is treating the expectation of interest rate cuts, the US dollar index, and risk assets "rising and falling together" as the main storyline, honestly macro narratives are now quite good at deceiving, like adding narration to candlestick charts. Anyway, I take simplicity as a trap: hearing "funds are coming" sounds great, but the price is that you ignore where they’re coming from, where they’re going to, and when they might withdraw. For now, I’ll keep an eye on on-chain details; it’s more reliable than listening to stories.