I noticed that the European natural gas market is in interesting movement. Last week, analysts from ANZ pointed out that despite geopolitical risks in the Middle East, prices are expected to fall more than 4% this week. The issue is that Europe is directly competing with Asia for liquefied natural gas shipments while trying to replenish heavily depleted inventories.

What is currently supporting demand somewhat is the expected temperature drop in northwestern Europe. This slows down stock accumulation and maintains fuel demand. In early trading, the Dutch TTF (market benchmark) fell 1.6%, closing at 41.74 euros per megawatt-hour.

There is also the geopolitical side: negotiations between the US and Iran, as well as the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon, have significantly eased concerns about prolonged conflicts. This reduces the risk of disruptions to liquefied natural gas supplies in the region. It’s a scenario that mixes technical factors with international politics, and the market is responding to it. It’s worth monitoring how these developments will affect prices in the coming days.