I recently came across a market signal that is definitely worth paying attention to. The latest calculations from Huatai Securities show that in 2026 and 2027, the global primary aluminum supply-and-demand shortfalls will be 949,000 tons and 389,000 tons respectively, with shortages of 94.9 hundred-thousand tons and 38.9 hundred-thousand tons—so the gap size is actually quite substantial.

The problem on the supply side is even more rigid than people might imagine. The special nature of electrolytic cell equipment means that once output declines, it is almost impossible to quickly recover in the short term, and the same is true even if geopolitical tensions are resolved rapidly. This means supply bottlenecks will be a long-term constraint.

What’s interesting is that the market’s earlier expectations for the demand side were actually on the pessimistic side. This was mainly because crude oil prices stayed high, and people worried that this would weigh on downstream demand. But Huatai’s view is that once concerns about the war further ease, the upside room for aluminum prices will be further released. With tight supply plus a repaired demand outlook, this logic still holds.

From an investment perspective, the most direct opportunities should likely be with companies whose overseas electrolytic aluminum capacity plans are relatively well developed. They will benefit more directly from this round of overseas aluminum price increases. If you’re also keeping an eye on this direction, you may want to focus particularly on companies that have substantial production capacity overseas—there may be plenty of opportunities ahead.