I strongly feel that the bear market has entered its latter half. Looking back at the movements over the past few months, the signals indicated by on-chain data are very clear.

Last fall, I closed some positions at $121,000. Then, in mid-January, when BTC rebounded to $97,000, I judged that was the rebound's peak and made a final adjustment. To be honest, this judgment was correct. However, I couldn't fully exit at that time, and some costs were fixed around $90k. This was a result of being bound by the fixed idea of a "four-year cycle."

However, on January 10th, I captured a decisive signal with the "Comprehensive Cost Basis Model." It indicated that the bear market cycle had truly begun. The subsequent price movements proved this.

Understanding the essence of on-chain data is crucial. Behind the data are real people, reflecting a complex competition of market participants' behaviors and emotions. It is a mistake to simply think of it as a repetition of history. By understanding the superficial principles of the data, your judgment accuracy during confusion can be greatly improved.

Now, many people ask me, "When is the bottom?" Honestly, no one can perfectly grasp the absolute bottom. But since the major macro trend of the latter half of the bear market has become clear, the most effective strategy is obvious.

For the next six months, continue with regular dollar-cost averaging. Many people have limited funds, so I understand the desire to build positions at as low a level as possible. Based on current simulations, there is a possibility of a downside of about 10-20% from the current level. I estimate that it will take 3 to 5 months to establish a bottom.

During this period, it is necessary to pay close attention to indicators such as on-chain sentiment, liquidity drought points, whale movements, supply and demand relationships, cost basis, and futures premiums.

Please forgive me if my predictions are off. I am doing my best. The harsh winter is nearing its end. I will continue to work hard to identify key turning points so that everyone can secure leading positions in the next bull market.