Recently, there is a phenomenon that is particularly worth paying attention to. Every time before and after the non-farm payrolls data is released, the crypto market tends to experience significant volatility. Many traders are trying to understand the logic behind this, and today I will break down this issue.

First, let's talk about the major non-farm payrolls. This is data released by the U.S. government on the first Friday of each month, including three indicators: non-farm employment change, employment rate, and unemployment rate. Simply put, the better the employment data, the stronger the economy, and the more likely the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy. This is usually bearish for risk assets. Conversely, weak employment data suggests economic slowdown, and expectations of monetary easing will increase.

The small non-farm payrolls refer to the ADP employment data, released on the first Wednesday of each month. Its data comes from about 500k U.S. private companies. Although it is an unofficial statistic, due to its large sample size and coverage of cities across the globe, it still holds considerable authority. The higher the ADP employment number, the more vigorous the economy, but this also indicates that the Fed might lean toward tightening policies.

Interestingly, there is a strong positive correlation between the large and small non-farm payrolls. Many traders use the ADP data on Wednesday to predict the direction of the major non-farm payrolls on Friday, effectively "calibrating" expectations in advance. If the ADP report performs strongly, the major payrolls on Friday are likely to exceed expectations as well.

In practical trading, the price tends to fluctuate within a range of about 10 minutes before and after the non-farm payrolls data release. The reason is simple: the global derivatives markets—trillions of dollars in forex, gold, US dollar index, commodities—are all watching this data. When the market moves, it can easily trigger FOMO emotions, making it the easiest time for big funds to harvest profits.

Based on previous trends, traders can predict how the market might behave when the data is announced. If from 19:00 to 20:00 the market is in a downward trend, it might spike up around 20:30 and then fall back. If it’s a slow climb, it could fall first and then rally. If the market is sideways, there’s a high probability of "pinning" with price probes up and down. The typical volatility ranges from $150-300 or $200-400, and if it exceeds $500-800, that’s considered an extremely unexpected move.

Therefore, the key to trading around non-farm payrolls is to set stop-loss and take-profit orders in advance, operate with light positions, and prepare for the pinning behavior. Don’t be scared by sudden volatility; this is a normal market reaction mechanism.