Yesterday I saw an interesting report from Axel about the data from CryptoQuant. The Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score is at -2.28, which is quite extreme indeed. This means that prices are well below the on-chain "fair value," even surpassing the lows of 2018 and 2022. It seems that the scale of the realized market value has changed significantly in the ETF era, with a lot of institutional capital entering and increasing the cost basis.

But here’s the detail: while the MVRV Z-Score is signaling strong pressure, the NUPL indicator is at 0.197, still in the "hope" zone. We are not close to the capitulation levels we saw in December 2018, March 2020, or November 2022, when NUPL dropped into negative territory. Most investors still have paper profits, even with confidence shaken.

The first technical signal of an exit would be the MVRV Z-Score rising above -1.5 with BTC staying above $65,000. For now, the market is weakened but far from real panic. It’s worth keeping an eye on this divergence between the indicators.