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Recently, I saw a survey from Reuters indicating a significant adjustment in the forecast for U.S. PCE inflation.
Originally, it was expected that inflation would gradually decline in the second half of this year, but the latest forecast shows that U.S. PCE will reach an average of 3.7% in the second quarter, which is 0.4 percentage points higher than the expectations in last month's survey.
What's even more interesting is that the forecasts for the third and fourth quarters have also been revised upward.
The third quarter has been raised from 3.1% to 3.4%, and the fourth quarter from 2.9% to 3.2%.
This suggests that U.S. PCE inflation might be more "sticky" than the market previously thought, with a slower downward pace.
For traders, this information is a bit of a blow, because rising inflation expectations usually mean that the Federal Reserve's timetable for cutting interest rates could be pushed back.
People paying attention to the U.S. PCE trend have probably been digesting this change these days, watching how it will influence market expectations next.