By the end of April, I noticed an interesting observation from a Swedish expert at SEB regarding the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds. It turns out that the entire movement in the bond market closely follows investors' expectations regarding the Fed's decision on interest rates.

Interestingly, although theoretically there could be declines in the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds if the market changes its outlook on future rate cuts, such a change should not be drastic. The expert emphasized that we are not expecting groundbreaking moves here.

The range within which the yield moves is roughly 4.10% to 4.30%. This is the interval in which we are most likely to operate over the coming months. Nothing indicates that bonds will suddenly jump outside this corridor.

It’s interesting how this aligns with broader market expectations. It seems that investors are quite pragmatic in their view of the Fed's prospects and are adjusting their moves based on what is actually happening, rather than speculation.