📊 TRADING PERFORMANCE & MARKET SENTIMENT INDEX (FGI) REPORT – UPDATED 2026-05-01

The latest statistical data shows that the correlation coefficient between FGI and Win Rate remains low and continues to lean negative (r ~ -0.326). This further reinforces that FGI is not suitable as a tool for forecasting price trends or identifying entry points, but it still has practical value in quantifying trade risk. Overall, trading performance tends to weaken when market sentiment enters extreme excitement, so FGI is better used as an early risk-warning signal rather than a signal for expanding profit expectations.
Below is a summary of Win Rate (WR), minimum breakeven R:R, and the number of recorded days (n) across sentiment zones for reference:
🤑 Extreme Greed (≥80): WR 40.5% • R:R=1:1.47 • n=25
🤤 Greed (60–80): WR 45.1% • R:R=1:1.22 • n=215
😐 Neutral (40–60): WR 45.6% • R:R=1:1.19 • n=140
😨 Fear (20–40): WR 47.1% • R:R=1:1.12 • n=196
😱 Extreme Fear (<20): WR 52.9% • R:R=1:0.89 • n=92
Percentage of days with performance above the average level (46.68%) by sentiment zone:
🤑 Extreme Greed: 8.0%
🤤 Greed: 36.3%
😐 Neutral: 40.7%
😨 Fear: 55.1%
😱 Extreme Fear: 70.7%
➤ Scalping traders can use FGI as a guide to adjust profit expectations when entering trades:
📈 When FGI is high, profit expectations need to be higher to ensure a strong enough R:R, helping offset the risk of a lower win rate.
📉 When FGI is low, profit expectations can be reduced to improve capital turnover speed and make profit-taking easier.
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